The Greater Accra Region has historically emerged as one of the most competitive regions in any general election year. It has been noted to produce the eventual winner of the Presidential election and rural-urban migration into the capital means the dynamics of the region keeps changing. Now with the largest share of the voting public going into the 2020 General Elections, the region promises a slew of interesting contests in respect of the various parliamentary races. PoliticoGh takes a careful look at all 34 constituencies in the region, analyzes which ones are locked in for one political party or the other and which ones remain a battleground contest. This analysis is curated from historical data, PoliticoGh’s on-the-ground polling of the likely voters and social media analytics where available. The analysis gives a 0-1% chance of any independent or third-party candidate winning any of the available seats in the Greater Accra Region.
Each of the 34 races have been evaluated and most of these races can be projected as likely to be won by either the New Patriotic Party (NPP) or the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Nine (9) of these seats are however extremely competitive and are rated as toss-ups. The Research Desk would therefore refrain from making any projections on these races as they are too close to call. It remains to be seen if the coming days would provide further insight as to who the likely winners of these contests would be.
This piece is in three parts. The first part provides the reader with a historical perspective as to how the Greater Accra Region has voted in the last Six (6) General Elections while the second part focuses on ‘safe’ or likely seats for each of the parties. The piece concludes with a list of races that are considered competitive and thus too close to call.
A. Historical Analysis, voter share in the Greater Accra Region.
B. Projected Wins for each of the Parties; Seats rated as reliable for one party indicates a more than 60% chance for the party to win the seat while seats rated as likely indicates a more than 50% chance for the party to win the seat. Seats rated as toss-ups remain extremely competitive and are too close to call
Breakdown of Projections
Seats likely to be won
- The NDC is competitive in four of the seats rated as likely to fall to the NPP. These seats are Ablekuma Central, Ayawaso West Wuogon, Tema East and Tema West. The NPP is competitive in one of the seats rated as likely to fall to the NDC, this is Ablekuma West.
C. Races rated as too close to call
- Bortianor-Ngleshie Amanfrom: The Constituency was carved out of the Weija Constituency in 2012 and was first won by the NDC in 2012. The NPP’s Alhaji Habib Saad won in 2016 but lost the NPP Primary in 2020. Sylvester Tetteh is the new face of the NPP. He is the CEO of the National Youth Authority (NYA) and contested as Parliamentary Candidate for the Ningo-Prapam constituency on the ticket of the NPP in 2016. He goes up against Alexander Ackuaku a former NDC Parliamentary Candidate for Okaikwei South. The competitive nature of the race in 2016 may be outdone in 2020 all things considered.
- Amasaman: The Parliamentary Election in this constituency was decided by less than 300 votes in favor of the NDC in the 2016 Elections. Two new candidates in Sedem Afenyo (NDC) and Akwasi Owusu Afrifa (NPP) will go head to head in what promises to be another close battle. Amasaman voted NPP in 2004 but has voted NDC since 2008.
- Madina: The NPP won both the Parliamentary Elections and Presidential Elections in Madina for the first time ever in history in the 2016 elections. The then NPP parliamentary candidate Abu-Bakr Boniface Sadique polled a greater percentage of the votes as compared to the then NPP presidential candidate Nana Akufo-Addo in 2016 when he delivered the NDC’s first defeat in the area. In 2020, Abu-Bakr Boniface squares up against the NDC’s Francis Xavier Sosu, a prominent human rights lawyer and popular personality. This seat is one the NDC is poised to win back and one the NPP is confident they will retain.
- Adentan: A seat famed for not returning any incumbent to Parliament, this race is a rematch of the 2016 election between the NPP’s Yaw Buaben Asamoah and Mohammed Adamu Ramadan of the NDC. The 2016 election was decided by less than 1,500 votes and NPP prior to 2016 had won the seat only once in 2004.
- Klottey Korle: NPP won the Presidential Election but lost the Parliamentary Election after a member of the Party contested as an Independent and garnered a good quantum of votes. Zanetor Agyemang Rawlings, the winner in 2016 for the NDC now goes up against Prince Appiah Debrah of the NPP.
- Kpone Kpatamanso: Joseph Akuerteh of the NDC faces of with Hopeson Yaovi Adorye of the NPP in a seat that should be safe for the NDC but has had its composition altered significantly thereby signaling a closer than expected race in the constituency.
- Krowor: In what is a rematch of the 2016 election, the incumbent Elizabeth Afoley Quaye of the NPP is pitched against Agnes Naa Momo Lartey of the NDC. The race was narrowly decided in favor of the NPP in 2016 and the 2020 election promises an even closer contest.
- Dade Kotopon: Rita Odoley Sowah of the NDC squares up with Dr. Gerald Tetteh Nyanyofio who managed to defeat the incumbent MP in the NPP Primaries. The majority of Dade Kotopon voters chose to elect John Mahama in 2016 but the NDC failed to secure the majority in the Parliamentary race.
- This is another seat for which the NDC won the Presidential Elections and was defeated in the Parliamentary Elections. In 2020, Dr. Okoe Boye(NPP) goes up against Benjamin Ayiku Narh (NDC) in a race that is noted for being extremely competitive in every election year.
These projections are complied as a result of PoliticoGh’s tested methodology. Like all projections, there is a margin of error and this piece must be viewed within that context. PoliticoGh does not accept any liability for failure to understand these projections for what they are.